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WASHINGTON – The U.S. Treasury Department today announced its current estimates of net marketable debt held by the private sector.[1] for the quarters July – September 2024 and October – December 2024.
- During the July-September 2024 quarter, the Treasury plans to borrow $740 billion of net marketable debt held by private investors, assuming an end-September cash balance of $850 billion.[2] The borrowing estimate is $106 billion lower than what was announced in April 2024, largely due to lower repurchases from the Federal Reserve System’s open market account (SOMA) and a higher cash balance at the start of the quarter.[3]
- During the October-December 2024 quarter, the Treasury plans to borrow $565 billion of net marketable debt held by private investors, assuming an end-December cash balance of $700 billion.[4]
During the April-June 2024 quarter, Treasury borrowed $234 billion of net marketable debt held by private investors and ended the quarter with a cash balance of $778 billion. In April 2024, Treasury estimated borrowings at $243 billion and assumed an ending June cash balance of $750 billion. Net marketable borrowing held by private investors was lower by $9 billion, largely because higher net cash flows and lower SOMA repurchases were partially offset by a higher ending cash balance of $28 billion.
Further funding details relating to the Treasury’s quarterly funding will be published at 8:30am on Wednesday 31 July 2024.
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[1] Net marketable borrowings held by private investors exclude renewals (auction “top-ups”) of Treasury securities held in SOMA but include funding required due to SOMA repurchases. SOMA purchases of Treasury securities in the secondary market do not directly change net marketable borrowings held by private investors, but, all else equal, when the securities mature and assuming the Federal Reserve does not repurchase any maturing securities, it would increase the amount of cash raised for a given private auction size by increasing the SOMA “top-up” amount. In addition, repurchases are not expected to significantly affect net marketable borrowings held by private investors because new issuance replaces the repurchased securities.
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[3] On May 1, 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee announced that, effective June 1, it would reduce the cap on SOMA Treasury securities repurchases from $60 billion per month to $25 billion per month.
[4] The Treasury’s assumed cash balance at the end of December of $700 billion is also its assumed cash balance at the end of the debt ceiling suspension on January 1, 2025. This assumption is based on projected cash flows under the Treasury’s cash management policies and is consistent with its authorities and obligations, including those under the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023. The actual cash balance at January 1, 2025, may differ from this assumption based on changes in cash flows toward the end of 2024.
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