The Astros appear to have overpaid a bit. Sending two talented young players who have played in the major leagues and another upper minor league prospect to Toronto in exchange for Yusei Kikuchi, a rental player who could soon become a free agent, is a bit excessive given how the market has reacted so far at this deadline.
To be clear, the Astros should go all-in. That’s not the issue here. Houston entered Monday’s game tied with the Mariners atop the American League West. They’ve admirably managed to climb out of a chasm after a sluggish start to the 2024 season. When you employ guys like José Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yordan Álvarez, the World Series is always a reality. This club has been to seven American League Championship Series for a reason.
The Astros also adequately addressed a need on their roster: starting pitchers. A litany of injuries has left Houston’s rotation woefully understaffed. But the problems here are (1) the player they acquired and (2) the price they paid.
Yusei Kikuchi is a quality MLB starting pitcher who should slot right into Houston’s rotation and earn innings late in the season. But will he start a postseason game for the Astros? Unless Justin Verlander, still on the ice, isn’t healthy in October, probably not. Verlander, Framber Valdez and two breakout players in Ronel Blanco and Hunter Brown would be ahead of Kikuchi on the roster. The 33-year-old Japanese lefty has started the season well, but his secondary pitching has been completely crushed this year, and considering he’s a free agent at the end of the season, the price Houston is paying seems steep to me.
Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido and Will Wagner are all either in Triple-A or have played in the major leagues. That suggests Toronto is more interested in a refresh than a rebuild, which makes sense given that Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. remain under contract through next season. So who are these guys?
Bloss has struggled to start his season with Houston with three starts, but those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt. The 23-year-old right-hander was drafted out of Georgetown University last season and sent to the big leagues due to Houston’s injury problems. He has a 95 percent hitting percentage and excellent carrying ability, making him a great rotation option in the future. There’s still work to be done here, but he’s under team control until the sun goes down.
Physically, Loperfido is a bit like Cody Bellinger. He’s obviously not that good, but he has athleticism that appeals to this big-swinging outfielder/1B. The former Duke Blue Devil also made his debut this year and was more bland than disastrous, though he had a strikeout rate that was a bit of a turnaround. If he can cut down on his errors in the zone, he could become a decent everyday player.
Wagner, the son of former MLB closer Billy Wagner, is more of an up-and-down utility bench player with good swing decisions and limited power.
When you consider that Kikuchi will be on the open market at the end of the season and compare Toronto’s performance to the White Sox’s disappointing performance for a more sought-after starter in Erick Fedde, it’s hard not to view this as an overpay on Houston’s part.
